Solana fence: are we going to touch the sky… or the GROUND?

The current period is really not conducive to a rise in assets. Everyone is talking about the Bear Market, the world economy is at its worst and it is currently very difficult to make a profit for most people. This spares no assets and even less the Altcoins. Yesterday’s closing on Solana, for example, shows that he is not doing better than the others. This, despite the announcement of their own mobile phone for a few days. Everyone is looking for the bottom and the start of a bullish recovery. The market brought some fresh air with the slight rise in prices at the end of June. Real bullish recovery or rebound before going to burst the floor?

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Solana’s Daily close: a real bullish recovery?

The SOL found a local bottom on June 13th. Casually, he was able to record a nice climb of about 48% between June 13 and 25. It even managed to break through the July 2021 support turned resistance. But, it was short-lived as he lost approximately 25% the following week. Usually after a fake out on a resistance like this, we should expect a sharp decline. However, yesterday we saw a nice bullish candle and we closed almost 10% positive.

SOL price against the dollar (1D)

Is this a good sign? I would have tended to say yes if we had again broken the resistance to 37 dollars. However, in the present case, the Last night’s close shows the resilience of this price. What formed a bottom higher than the previous one may very well be just the start of a new downtrend. This trend is then led by the bearish Pullback on the 37 dollars, new resistance since the fall in prices. To hold this slight uptrend and invalidate the bearish scenario that is taking hold, you must first hold the dip at 32.82 dollars and go break the last peak at 42.2 dollars. There will be no real bullish recovery before the breakout of this last peak.

A Solana fence in the perfect Pullback

In zooming on an H4 scale in order to have more precision, we see that the decline since June 25 has been rather clean. The Pullback Bears were perfect until the morning of June 28 when the decline accelerated. We found a slight dip and a small range took place between the evening of June 30 and yesterday morning. Yesterday was a positive day with a big climb up to the $37. But, the closing of this night effectively validated once again the resistant side of these 37 dollars.

SOL price against the dollar (H4)
SOL price against the dollar (H4)

With the rejection of this resistance, I don’t expect the uptrend to resume. This is for me a downtrend confirmation which has been in place since June 25. Thus, we are retesting this level and will most certainly at least seek liquidity from those who have placed a Long after yesterday. If we lose the last dip, it is for me a return to 25 dollars that awaits us. Another possibility would also be to go look for shorts liquidation at 39 dollars before actually descending and following the first scenario. The invalidation of the global scenario would happen in H4 if we pass above and validate the 39 dollars as support.

Solana about to validate a double top?

I would have preferred not to zoom in here. Why ? Because we clearly see the return of a downtrend in H1. The fence on Solana of yesterday, brought a summit to the $37 and we are validating the neck line break of a double top. The price made a near-perfect pullback on the resistant price. It is now about to break the neck line formed by this morning’s small bullish bounce.

SOL price against the dollar (H1)
Price of the Solana against the dollar (H1)

The bearish scenario announced on the H4 scale therefore seems to be validated now. The break of this line would most likely invite the price to go directly to the range of the last few days with an intake of liquidity in the zone stated in H4. Subsequently, if the range breaks from below, we will directly retest the Daily support at $28 in the next few days.

The market is there to trap everyone. The euphoria was present yesterday with these candles of almost 10%, but many will become disillusioned over the next few days. Currently we are just validating the continuation of a downtrend which could take us very low by breaking the latest Daily support. For the day, I expect us to re-enter the Range of the past few days by the end of the day.

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