Ethereum: The rebound is over, back to $900? Whales don’t buy anymore…

Hit or miss …– After a successful deployment of The Merge on sepoliathere are only a few crucial steps left before the update is complete.Ethereum. Yet, within weeks, all buyers’ hopes were dashed by a powerful selling force. The month of June was particularly complicated for the blockchain of Vitalik Buterin who lost 45%. Those who firmly believe in the project continue to accumulate in this complicated period. Ethereum is currently attempting a trend change, but the bulls will they finally succeed in breaking the selling force that has been in place since the beginning of April? Let’s analyze the second capitalization of the cryptocurrency market.

This analysis of the Ethereum price is brought to you in collaboration with the Coin Trading and its algorithmic trading solution finally accessible to individuals.

Ethereum weekly: back to $900

Ethereum has already lost more than 80% in a few months. The fall could continue if buyers do not show up quickly:

Ethereum price against the dollar (1W)

Ethereum is about to meet its resistance weekly at $1,300. A rejection on this resistance would open the way to a return on the bracket at $900. The weekly trend is frankly bearish and below the bearish trendline implemented a few months ago. Now, there is no change in trend: the price therefore remains very brittle. You will have to wait at least one bullish engulfing candle or a double bottom confirmed.

the momentumwhich helps to describe the strength of buyers against the strength of sellers, shows a trend always bearish. It will be necessary to break free from the trendline to regain buying strength.

To see that the buyers are present, it would be necessary to exceed a resistance and, for example, draw a tidy Between $1,300 and $1,900 for this summer.

Ethereum Daily: Double Resistance at $1,250

Ethereum is trending bearish weekly. On a daily basis, the price is trying to change dynamics by exceeding the resistance at $1,250 :

Ethereum remains stuck below $1,250.
Ethereum price against the dollar (1D)

Ethereum tries for the third time the passing of $1,250. The price comes up against a second resistance with the presence of the first stop (0.382 Fibonacci retracement). If these resistances give way, the objective is a return between $1,500 and $1,700 (shorts reloading area). A breach of these resistances would show buying presence at these price levels.

The daily momentum is encouraging. The bearish trendline dating from the end of March has recently given way. Now you have to keep climbing while keeping the support (green) to 40 of RSI.

Two short-term scenarios for Ethereum

In the very short term, Ethereum has a shot to play. If the bears hold out, there is a good chance of coming back close to the low at $880 :

Ethereum is currently being rejected at $1,250.
Ethereum price against the dollar (1H)

In 1H, Ethereum blocks at $1,250. The bears manage to push back the prices. However, the more a resistance is touched, the more the probabilities that it yields are high. There are therefore two short-term possibilities:

  • Bearish : rejection and breakout of the bullish trendline. The price could then return to the lows found on June 18.
  • Bullish : resistance gives way and the buyers are pushing towards the 1.618 – 2 Fibonacci extension between $1,500 and $1,670.

For traders, this will bewait for a bullish or bearish breakout to take a stand. Given the current trend, the probabilities are tilted towards a drop and a return to $880. Nevertheless, even in a downtrend, there are reboundsand this could happen if the bulls manage to break through the resistance.

Ethereum against bitcoin: everything is played now!

Ethereum outperformed the Bitcoin throughout 2021. This has enabled prosperous health for altcoins. Since the beginning of 2022, the king of cryptocurrencies has regained control of the market and Ethereum underperforms :

Ethereum is in a downtrend against bitcoin in 3D.
Price of Ethereum against Bitcoin (3D)

If we objectively look at the price of Ethereum against Bitcoin, the trend is bearish and the course arrives on the resistance. The probabilities are oriented towards a pair fall. This would hurt Ethereum very badly, which could then go back below the psychological threshold of $1,000. It would also weaken altcoins.

A another scenario would potentially appear. This is the one shown on the graph. Remember, at the end of 2021, Ethereum draws a “W” in time units three days before falling. The course made a DETOUR before returning to the resistance and falling too. It is quite possible to do the same thing again under the resistance.

If the price of Ethereum against Bitcoin reaches overcome resistance in three-day and weekly time units, this would show that the price is in a tidy since May 2021. This scenario is a optimistic scenario. Indeed, the altcoins could take advantage of it to perform during the summer, a favorable period for altcoins given the low volumes during this period.

Ethereum: on-chain analysis

Ethereum deposits on exchanges

The on-chain analysis makes it possible to know the actor behavior. Recently, non-negligible amounts of ethereum have been deposited on exchanges:

Currently, Ethereum is deposited on the exchanges.
Deposits (green) and withdrawals (red) of Ethereum on exchanges (30 D) Source: Glassnode

While we observed withdrawals of Ethereum for over a year, players have changed their behavior recently. Since early June, large amounts of Ethereum have been deposited on exchanges. It could be related to capitulation after a fall of 75% since early April.

The passage under the $2,000 must have done level damage emotional leading players to massively deposit Ethereum on the exchanges. We will have to be careful if this trend continues.

The whales do not seem to be interested in the current prices

The whales are entities with more than 1,000 BTC in wallet. In the case of Ethereum, it is interesting to watch the whales having more than 10,000 ETH in wallet :

Whales are not currently redeeming Ethereum.
Number of addresses with more than 10,000 ETH in wallet Source: Glassnode

In 2021, these entities were buying Ethereum heavily, perhaps in view of the transition from Proof of Work to Proof of Stake. After the fall in May 2021, the whales decided to distribute scoring the top on Ethereum. More recently, the whales had bet on the rise by buying Ethereum at a price close to $3,000.

Since the fall and the passage under the threshold of $1,000the whales do not seem not interested by current prices. This does not seem illogical, for these entities tend to buy when the trend is up and to sell when the curve becomes parabolic. It will most certainly be necessary for the price to rise again before reviewing the portfolios with more than 10,000 ETH to massively buy back Ethereum.

Ethereum buyers need to show up quickly to avoid another drop that would drag altcoins lower. Against Bitcoin, Ethereum is bearish. It would be necessary to reintegrate the range quickly to avoid new falls. The players seem pessimistic and could even have capitulated if we look at the data concerning deposits and withdrawals on the exchange platforms. Whales are not buying Ethereum now, even though the prices look attractive.

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